Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz homered to left (372 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Yelich reached on bunt single to first, Turang scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Adames homered to center (421 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Chourio grounded out to shortstop, Ortiz scored, Frelick to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Steer homered to left center (397 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3De La Cruz scored on pickoff error by pitcher Rea.2–0
- 3De La Cruz scored, De La Cruz to third on pickoff error by pitcher Rea.1–0
- 3De La Cruz scored, De La Cruz to third on pickoff error by pitcher Rea.2–0
- 1Candelario hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML CIN +130 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -138
- CIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 5.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −4 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +62 Elo | MIL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 21–127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–33 | 39–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37–1 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–13 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.