Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9N. Jones singled to left, Stallings scored, Toglia to second.8–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Cave grounded into fielder's choice to second, Stallings scored, N. Jones out at second.8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 7Tellez singled to left, Reynolds scored and Cruz scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Delay doubled to right, Taylor scored, Triolo scored and Suwinski scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Triolo singled to center, Cruz scored and N. Gonzales scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Suwinski singled to center, Triolo scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML PIT -115 / COL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.8 – 5.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −3 | PIT: Josh Fleming: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +16 Elo | PIT 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 14–1622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–34 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 26–14 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders | 36–32 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 7–4 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.