Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith scored on error, Hamilton safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Guerrero Jr., Hamilton safe at second on error, Duran out at home in rundown.7–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Smith doubled to center, Valdez scored, McGuire to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Turner scored on Slaten wild pitch, Guerrero Jr. to second on wild pitch by Slaten.5–3
- 7Turner scored on Slaten wild pitch, Guerrero Jr. to second on wild pitch by Slaten.5–3
- 6Duran singled to center, Valdez scored, González to second.5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6González reached on infield single to second, Yoshida scored, Valdez to second.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Duran homered to center (433 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Turner grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Kiner-Falefa scored, Horwitz out at second, Kiermaier to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Kiermaier singled to center, Barger scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Valdez homered to right (378 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Hamilton singled to center, González scored on error, Hamilton to second, Hamilton safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Kiermaier.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML BOS +120 / TOR -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +5 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 18–1815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–40 | 34–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 21–24 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39–2 | 32–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–6 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.