Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rafaela singled to left, Hamilton scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8O'Neill homered to center (408 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Turner scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Kirk to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Yoshida singled to center, Devers scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Clement doubled to center, Barger scored and Turner scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Smith singled to center, O'Neill scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +7 Elo | TOR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 18–1714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–39 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–24 | 21–24 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38–2 | 32–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–6 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.