Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Friedl reached on bunt single to pitcher, Espinal scored on error and Maile scored on throwing error by pitcher Booser.2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Candelario homered to right (410 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Duran homered to right (401 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2India homered to left (370 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Wong homered to left center (375 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Candelario homered to right (373 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +12 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +28 Elo | CIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 18–1917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–40 | 39–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39–2 | 32–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.