Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Palacios singled to left, J. Lowe scored, Paredes to second.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 8Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Caballero scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Reynolds homered to right (360 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Díaz homered to right (347 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML TB +140 / PIT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +7 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +11 Elo | PIT 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 19–1917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–44 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 17–16 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–36 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–1 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.