Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arozarena scored on error, DeLuca safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Lewis, DeLuca safe at second on error.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Díaz reached on infield single to third, Caballero scored, Walls to second.2–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Lewis homered to left (410 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Larnach grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Martin scored, Castro out at second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Paredes homered to left (359 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML TB +145 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -154
- TB +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 23–1410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–44 | 33–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 18–28 |
| Underdog | 14–16 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34 | 33–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–2 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.