Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Correa homered to left (394 feet), Lewis scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Martin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Buxton scored, Jeffers out at second.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 3Correa singled to right, Larnach scored, Kepler to second.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Buxton singled to center, Kepler scored and Correa scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Soderstrom homered to center (431 feet), Andujar scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 70%
- ML OAK +220 / MIN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 66.2%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -234
- OAK +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.3 – 5.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +117 Elo | MIN 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–24 | Road vs home | 18–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–36 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 16–25 |
| Underdog | 30–30 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37 | 30–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–5 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.