Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kim hit sacrifice fly to center, Wade scored on error, Merrill safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Bleday, Solano to third.1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 7Merrill singled to center, Cronenworth scored, Solano to second, Machado to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Solano walked, Profar scored, Machado to second, Cronenworth to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 41–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to right center (371 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Kim singled to left, Merrill scored, Kim out stretching at second.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Cronenworth homered to right center (422 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Soderstrom homered to right center (405 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 65%
- ML OAK +175 / SD -210
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SD: Elo 65.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -186
- OAK +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +109 Elo | SD 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 15–2025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–35 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 28–29 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 36–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 0–3 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.