Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Padres- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Higashioka homered to left (364 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Soderstrom homered to center (421 feet), Andujar scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Profar singled to right, Arraez scored and Tatis Jr. scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Arraez reached on infield single to first, Kim scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Toro homered to center (415 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML OAK +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- SD: Elo 64.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- OAK +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | 0 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +102 Elo | SD 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 16–2023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–36 | 37–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 28–30 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36 | 36–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 0–4 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.