Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Donovan SolanoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrill homered to right (369 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Solano homered to center (396 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Gelof doubled to center, Brown scored, Gelof to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Brown reached on bunt single to shortstop, Soderstrom scored, Langeliers to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Langeliers singled to left, Andujar scored, Soderstrom to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Soderstrom singled to left, Bleday scored, Andujar to second.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Merrill homered to center (406 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Solano homered to left center (404 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 67%
- ML OAK +190 / SD -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SD: Elo 68.3%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- SD -201
- OAK +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +5 | OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +134 Elo | SD 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–23 | Road vs home | 17–2021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–36 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 29–30 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 31–37 | 36–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 0–5 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.