Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Max KeplerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kepler singled to right, Martin scored, Correa to second.5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Santana walked, Correa scored, Miranda to second, Kepler to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 45–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 7Rooker tripled to right, Bleday scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Kepler homered to center (426 feet), Castro scored and Correa scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Buxton tripled to center, Santana scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Langeliers homered to left center (408 feet), Schuemann scored, Bleday scored and Andujar scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML OAK +150 / MIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- OAK +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.7 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +114 Elo | MIN 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–25 | Road vs home | 19–1410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–37 | 32–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 30–31 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–38 | 30–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–6 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.