Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Miranda homered to left (427 feet).7–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Langeliers singled to center, Andujar scored, Soderstrom to third.7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 7Soderstrom singled to left, Bleday scored, Andujar to third.6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Correa singled to right, Lewis scored, Kepler to third.5–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 3Martin doubled to center, Santana scored.5–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 3Soderstrom homered to center (421 feet).5–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Bleday homered to right center (380 feet).4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 2Larnach homered to right (379 feet), Martin scored and Castro scored.3–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 23–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Gelof doubled to center, Brown scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Brown doubled to center, Cameron scored on fielding error by center fielder Martin and Soderstrom scored on error, Brown to third.2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML OAK +165 / MIN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 66.8%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -177
- OAK +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +121 Elo | MIN 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–27 | Road vs home | 21–1410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–38 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 31–32 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–8 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.