Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Daz CameronBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCann singled to right, Davis scored, Cameron to second.2–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Santana homered to center (405 feet), Buxton scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Cameron homered to left (365 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Correa homered to left (408 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Lewis homered to right (380 feet).0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Correa homered to left center (393 feet), Margot scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 65%
- ML OAK +175 / MIN -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 63.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -186
- OAK +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −9 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +95 Elo | MIN 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–26 | Road vs home | 20–1410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–37 | 32–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 31–31 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–7 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.