Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santana singled to center, Margot scored, Correa to second.6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Jeffers hit sacrifice fly to center, Correa scored.6–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 5Kepler homered to center (419 feet).6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 5J. Lowe homered to center (422 feet).6–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 5B. Lowe homered to center (427 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Larnach hit a ground rule double, Castro scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Castro doubled to right, Correa scored, Martin scored and Jeffers scored, Castro to third.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3J. Lowe singled to right, Díaz scored, Paredes to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Arozarena homered to left (420 feet), B. Lowe scored and Paredes scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML TB +160 / MIN -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- TB +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −9 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +40 Elo | MIN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 22–1410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–44 | 33–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 18–27 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 38–34 | 32–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–1 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.