Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rortvedt homered to right (370 feet), Rosario scored and Siri scored.10–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Reynolds homered to right center (439 feet).7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6J. Lowe homered to left center (402 feet), Walls scored and B. Lowe scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Suwinski doubled to right, N. Gonzales scored, Hayes to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Hayes singled to left, Tellez scored, N. Gonzales to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4B. Lowe reached on infield single to shortstop, Rortvedt scored, Díaz to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Díaz singled to left, Siri scored, Rortvedt to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3J. Lowe homered to right center (411 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Walls hit sacrifice fly to right, Siri scored, Rortvedt to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- TB: Elo 46.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +19 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 18–1815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–44 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 40–35 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–0 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.