Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10DeLuca singled to center, Walls scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 9Miranda homered to left center (384 feet), Buxton scored and Martin scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 9Santana homered to right (386 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Díaz homered to center (439 feet), Jackson scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Siri homered to left (404 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 8Rosario doubled to left, Palacios scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Lewis homered to left (373 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to right, Jackson scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Farmer doubled to left, Santana scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Arozarena doubled to left, J. Lowe scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML TB +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +49 Elo | MIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 23–1510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–44 | 33–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 15–16 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–35 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–2 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.