Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz doubled to center, Caballero scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 22–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Rortvedt singled to left, Palacios scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3N. Gonzales grounded into fielder's choice to third, Cruz scored, Tellez out at second.1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Tellez singled to right, Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Reynolds singled to left, McCutchen scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Cruz homered to right (445 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1J. Lowe grounded out to shortstop, B. Lowe scored, Arozarena to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML TB -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −26 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +38 Elo | TB 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 18–1918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–44 | 37–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–35 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–0 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.