Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Delay doubled to left, Joe scored and N. Gonzales scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5McCutchen homered to center (422 feet), Delay scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Tellez homered to left (362 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3India doubled to center, Fairchild scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Suwinski singled to center, Hayes scored, Joe to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML PIT +115 / CIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −12 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +28 Elo | CIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 20–2220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–39 | 42–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 35–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 11–7 CIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.