Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Candelario grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, India scored, De La Cruz out at second.9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6India scored, De La Cruz safe at first, De La Cruaz advanced to third on fielding error by center fielder Taylor.9–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 29–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 6Tellez singled to left, Taylor scored, McCutchen to third.9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 5Stephenson tripled to right, Steer scored.8–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 38–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 5Steer doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.8–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 5Candelario grounded out to second, India scored, De La Cruz to third.8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Triolo homered to left (361 feet), N. Gonzales scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 3Grandal hit sacrifice fly to center, Tellez scored, Olivares to third.6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Olivares singled to right, Cruz scored and Reynolds scored, Tellez to second.5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML PIT +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +3 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +26 Elo | CIN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 20–2118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–39 | 42–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38 | 34–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–7 CIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.