Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.1 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carlson doubled to left, Donovan scored.11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 8Donovan doubled to center, Siani scored.11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 7Fairchild singled to right, Marte scored, Benson to second.11–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 210–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 5Maile hit sacrifice fly to right, Fairchild scored.10–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 5Fairchild doubled to left, Benson scored.9–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 5Benson doubled to left, Marte scored.8–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Steer homered to left (380 feet), De La Cruz scored.7–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Arenado homered to left (370 feet), Contreras scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 35–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML CIN +125 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- STL: Elo 49.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -133
- CIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +4 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +1 Elo | CIN 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 21–1611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–38 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 35–44–1 | 34–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–9 STL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.