Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-3
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-4
- Andre PallantePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Burleson hit sacrifice fly to shortstop, Siani scored on error, Contreras safe at second on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML CIN +110 / STL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- STL: Elo 51.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +7 Elo | STL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 21–1713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–38 | 39–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44–1 | 35–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–9 STL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.