Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4
- Hunter GreenePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Winn doubled to center, Arenado scored, Pagés to third.0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Burleson singled to right, Pagés scored, Winn to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML CIN +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- STL: Elo 49.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 22–1813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–38 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45–1 | 36–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–10 STL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.