Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Edward OlivaresBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Duvall singled to center, Williams scored.1–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Olivares hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Kelenic homered to right (367 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML PIT +125 / ATL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.4 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +18 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +98 Elo | ATL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 25–136th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–40 | 39–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 31–37 |
| Underdog | 30–17 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40 | 29–48–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–6 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.