Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 1Robert Jr. homered to left (352 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 73%
- ML ATL -315 / CHW +250
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 70.8%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -266
- CHW +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 2.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −20 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Chad Kuhl: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +154 Elo | ATL 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 69.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 13–2830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–40 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–36 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 34–44 |
| Overs–unders | 29–46–3 | 36–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.