Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Ohtani singled to right, Lux scored, Vargas to third.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 3Freeman homered to left (369 feet), Ohtani scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Jiménez doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Benintendi homered to right (397 feet), Pham scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (376 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML LAD -230 / CHW +185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 70.2%, market 66.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -199
- CHW +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −18 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +149 Elo | LAD 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 13–2630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–40 | 37–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–36 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 33–43 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40–1 | 36–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–1 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.