Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ward singled to left, Adell scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Moniak grounded out to second, Ward scored, Neto to second, O'Hoppe to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Neto hit by pitch, Rengifo scored, O'Hoppe to second, Ward to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Ohtani homered to right center (455 feet), Barnes scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAA +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +128 Elo | LAD 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 24–149th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–34 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 36–35 |
| Underdog | 39–21 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–35 | 38–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 0–4 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.