Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach PlesacPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Turang homered to right center (419 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 4Neto homered to left center (404 feet), O'Hoppe scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Ward hit sacrifice fly to right, Schanuel scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Schanuel singled to right, Guillorme scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Guillorme tripled to right, Adell scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Bauers homered to right (359 feet), Adames scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -130 / LAA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | MIL: Carlos Rodriguez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Zach Plesac: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +63 Elo | MIL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 11–2329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–31 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 1–13 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 38–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–31 | 39–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.