Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle hit sacrifice fly to center, Cave scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Doyle hit sacrifice fly to left, Montero scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 7Bouchard scored on error, Montero safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Biggio.6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Heyward doubled to right, Pages scored and T. Hernández scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Bouchard grounded out to third, Toglia scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 2Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored.4–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 2Ohtani doubled to center, E. Hernández scored, Lux scored and Biggio scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Toglia homered to center (427 feet), McMahon scored and Stallings scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -205 / COL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 68.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- COL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.9 – 4.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −22 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +138 Elo | LAD 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 14–1927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–37 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–33 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders | 37–37–1 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–4 COL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 18.