Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman singled to center, Betts scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Taylor homered to left center (396 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Rojas homered to left (390 feet), Pages scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Perez homered to left (437 feet), Garcia scored and Pasquantino scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML KC +130 / LAD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.4 – 4.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +89 Elo | LAD 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 22–136th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–27 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 33–31 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 31–37–1 | 34–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–1 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.