Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pages homered to left (369 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Langford singled to shallow right, García scored, Lowe to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Langford singled to right, García scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Lowe grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored, García to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML TEX +165 / LAD -195
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- TEX +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −13 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +52 Elo | LAD 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 22–125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–39 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 33–30 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 25–41–1 | 34–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 2–3 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.