Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vargas hit sacrifice fly to left, Ohtani scored.2–15
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–15
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–15
- 7Duran homered to left center (401 feet).2–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–14
- 6Heyward homered to right (415 feet), Pages scored.1–14
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–14
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 6T. Hernández homered to left center (386 feet), Smith scored.1–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 6Freeman homered to left center (383 feet).1–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 6Ohtani homered to right center (433 feet), Betts scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 5Lux singled to right, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to second.1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Betts doubled to left, Heyward scored, Lux scored and Pages scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to right, Langford scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Smith homered to left center (375 feet), Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML TEX +145 / LAD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- TEX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −12 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +40 Elo | LAD 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.45th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 21–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–38 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 32–29 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–40–1 | 33–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 1–2 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.