Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heyward doubled to center, Smith scored, Pages thrown out at home.3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Seager homered to right center (422 feet), Taveras scored and Semien scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Ohtani homered to center (424 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML TEX +150 / LAD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -159
- TEX +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −1 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +45 Elo | LAD 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 22–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–39 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 33–29 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 25–40–1 | 34–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 1–3 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.