Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman homered to left center (392 feet), Montero scored.9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Montero doubled to left, Toglia scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9G. Jones homered to right (419 feet).9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 9Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Lux scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 12 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 11 : Ball 38–1
- 9Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 9Lux doubled to center, Biggio scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Heyward singled to right, Freeman scored and Ohtani scored, T. Hernández to second.7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Biggio singled to center, Rojas scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Rojas doubled to left, Heyward scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Stallings homered to center (426 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Smith tripled to right, Ohtani scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -170 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -154
- COL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +19 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +82 Elo | LAD 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 14–1725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–37 | 34–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–33 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37–1 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–4 COL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.