Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Anthony BandaPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Velázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Witt Jr. singled to left, Hampson scored, Garcia to second.6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Melendez homered to right (395 feet), Pasquantino scored, Velázquez scored and Fermin scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 12 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 11 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Lux singled to center, Freeman scored and Pages scored, Heyward to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Loftin grounded out to second, Pasquantino scored, Fermin to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML KC +200 / LAD -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.4%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -214
- KC +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 2.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +6 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +81 Elo | LAD 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 23–136th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–27 | 35–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 33–32 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 31–38–1 | 34–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–2 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.