Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández homered to right center (423 feet), Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.11–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–9
- 9Heyward homered to right center (381 feet), Pages scored, Rojas scored and Vargas scored.8–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 7Cave hit sacrifice fly to left, N. Jones scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 7Vargas doubled to left, E. Hernández scored.4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Doyle singled to left, Trejo scored, Montero to second.3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Ohtani homered to center (476 feet).3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Doyle homered to left (427 feet).2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 3Ohtani grounded out to first, Taylor scored.2–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Montero homered to left center (410 feet), Trejo scored.1–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -200 / COL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 66.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.9 – 4.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −9 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +122 Elo | LAD 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 14–1826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–37 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–33 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders | 36–37–1 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 13–4 COL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.