Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel singled to center, Moniak scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Adell grounded out to second, Neto scored, Moniak to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9O'Hoppe scored on Hernández wild pitch.6–1
- 9O'Hoppe scored on Hernández wild pitch.6–1
- 6Chourio hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoskins scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 4Chourio doubled to right, Sánchez scored on fielding error by right fielder Adell, Chourio scored and Frelick scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Frelick scored on Canning wild pitch, Sánchez safe at second on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.2–0
- 2Frelick scored on Canning wild pitch, Sánchez safe at second on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.2–0
- 1Yelich homered to right center (403 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -145 / LAA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -133
- LAA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +68 Elo | MIL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 12–2329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–32 | 40–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 1–13 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 39–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–32 | 39–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–2 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.