Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon homered to right center (462 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Cave singled to right, Bouchard scored and Toglia scored, Montero to second.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Freeman homered to center (430 feet).5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Smith homered to center (451 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Vargas singled to right, Pages scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pages doubled to left, T. Hernández scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Ohtani homered to center (427 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML LAD -225 / COL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.7%, market 66.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -194
- COL +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +113 Elo | LAD 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 15–1927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–38 | 35–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–34 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37–1 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–5 COL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.