Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew ThorpePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-5
- Kenta MaedaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canha grounded out to third, Vierling scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Sosa singled to center, Lopez scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Lee homered to left (410 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Vaughn singled to left, Benintendi scored, Sheets to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Lopez doubled to right, DeJong scored, Lee to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4DeJong singled to center, Robert Jr. scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML CHW +140 / DET -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- DET: Elo 63.6%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -151
- CHW +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −10 | CHW: Drew Thorpe: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +97 Elo | DET 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–32 | Road vs home | 17–1922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–41 | 34–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 32–41 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41–1 | 41–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–12 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.