Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Drew ThorpePitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Colás singled to left, Vaughn scored.5–12
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–12
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 34–12
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–12
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 14–12
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–12
- 9Vaughn singled to right, Maldonado scored and Pham scored.4–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–12
- 7Pham singled to right, Sosa scored.2–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–12
- 6Grichuk grounded out to third, McCarthy scored.1–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 6McCarthy tripled to left, Pederson scored.1–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–11
- 4Grichuk scored on Kuhl wild pitch, Moreno to third on wild pitch by Kuhl.1–10
- 4Grichuk scored on Kuhl wild pitch, Moreno to third on wild pitch by Kuhl.1–10
- 4Walker scored on Kuhl wild pitch, Grichuk to second on wild pitch by Kuhl.1–9
- 4Walker scored on Kuhl wild pitch, Grichuk to second on wild pitch by Kuhl.1–9
- 4McCarthy hit sacrifice fly to center, Pederson scored, Walker to third.1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Walker doubled to right, Perdomo scored and Carroll scored, Pederson to third.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Marte hit sacrifice fly to left, Alexander scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3McCarthy grounded into fielder's choice to second, Pederson scored, Walker out at second.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Vaughn grounded out to second, Mendick scored, Pham to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Walker homered to left center (432 feet).0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML CHW +155 / ARI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 62.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | CHW: Drew Thorpe: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +88 Elo | ARI 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–30 | Road vs home | 18–1815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–38 | 34–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 14–20 |
| Underdog | 30–38 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37–1 | 36–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–3 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.