Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee homered to left center (414 feet), Robert Jr. scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Sosa homered to left (356 feet), Robert Jr. scored and Lee scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pederson hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Vaughn homered to right center (378 feet), Pham scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4DeJong homered to right center (411 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Vaughn singled to center, Maldonado scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Marte singled to right, Carroll scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML CHW +145 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 68.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -156
- CHW +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +16 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Scott McGough: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +134 Elo | ARI 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–30 | Road vs home | 18–1715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–38 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 14–19 |
| Underdog | 29–38 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37–1 | 35–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–3 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.