Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to right (383 feet), Crawford scored, Rojas scored and Rodríguez scored.4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Raley reached on bunt single to third, Rojas scored, Rivas to second.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 8Haniger singled to right, Bliss scored and Crawford scored, Rojas to third.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 8Canzone homered to center (413 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Julks homered to left (358 feet).4–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Sosa singled to center, Vaughn scored.3–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Robert Jr. homered to left (403 feet), Lee scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML CHW +170 / SEA -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 68.5%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -180
- CHW +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +135 Elo | SEA 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–26 | Road vs home | 21–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–36 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 26–36 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33–1 | 25–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–4 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.