Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Vaughn grounded out to third, Lee scored, Lopez to second.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Rodríguez homered to right center (415 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Locklear homered to left center (366 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Robert Jr. homered to center (413 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Vaughn homered to center (402 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML CHW +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −12 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +97 Elo | SEA 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–29 | Road vs home | 24–114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–37 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 28–37 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35–1 | 26–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–7 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.