Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew ThorpePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Jhonathan DiazPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raleigh doubled to right, Rodríguez scored and Rojas scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Raleigh doubled, Rodríguez scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3DeJong homered to right (371 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Vaughn homered to left (359 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Garver doubled to right, Raley scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Maldonado singled to left, DeJong scored, DeLoach to second, Lee to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML CHW +155 / SEA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 66.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | CHW: Drew Thorpe (no track record yet) · SEA: Jhonathan Diaz: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +121 Elo | SEA 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–27 | Road vs home | 22–114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–37 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 26–37 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33–1 | 26–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–5 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.