Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Haniger singled to right, Raley scored, Canzone to second.1–2
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball 21–1
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 11–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 9Robert Jr. homered to left (368 feet).1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Raley homered to right center (376 feet).0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 70%
- ML CHW +215 / SEA -265
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 66.5%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -229
- CHW +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.8 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −16 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +119 Elo | SEA 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–28 | Road vs home | 23–114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–37 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 27–37 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34–1 | 26–40–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–6 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.