Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Nicky LopezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Joc PedersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pederson homered to right (425 feet).1–7
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 31–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Pederson grounded out to second, Carroll scored, Marte to third.1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Carroll reached on infield single to first, Barnhart scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Suárez homered to left center (395 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Pederson scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Barnhart singled to right, Grichuk scored and Gurriel Jr. scored, Suárez to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Lopez singled to left, Benintendi scored, DeJong to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 64%
- ML CHW +165 / ARI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 64.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 5.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −19 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +104 Elo | ARI 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–29 | Road vs home | 17–1714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–37 | 33–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 29–37 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–36–1 | 35–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.