Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Carson KellyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pham homered to left (370 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Kelly homered to left (412 feet), Malloy scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML CHW +155 / DET -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- DET: Elo 63.2%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -167
- CHW +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −4 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +94 Elo | DET 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–31 | Road vs home | 16–1923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–41 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 9–24 |
| Underdog | 31–41 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–40–1 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–11 DET in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.