Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching8.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Vaughn grounded into fielder's choice to third, Julks scored, Pham out at second, Lee to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Vaughn grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lee scored, Pham out at second, Mendick to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML HOU -180 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +89 Elo | HOU 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 12–2328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–39 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 30–39 |
| Overs–unders | 27–39–3 | 35–37–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–3 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.