Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peña walked, Diaz scored, Meyers to second, Hummel to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 45–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Hummel safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Sosa, Bregman scored, Diaz to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Alvarez singled to center, Altuve scored, Bregman to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Altuve singled to left, Dubón scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Robert Jr. scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Vaughn singled to center, Pham scored, Robert Jr. to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Robert Jr. doubled to left, Maldonado scored, Pham to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Alvarez homered to right center (439 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 63%
- ML HOU -190 / CHW +155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.9%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -167
- CHW +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −20 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +92 Elo | HOU 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 26th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 13–2428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–40 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders | 27–41–3 | 35–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–4 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.