Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cesar SalazarBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCormick hit sacrifice fly to center, Meyers scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Salazar singled to center, Meyers scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Benintendi homered to right (363 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Salazar singled to left, Diaz scored, Peña to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Dubón grounded into fielder's choice to second, McCormick scored, Altuve out at second, Hummel to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML HOU -120 / CHW +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +25 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +53 Elo | HOU 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 13–2328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–40 | 35–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–33 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders | 27–40–3 | 35–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–4 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.